  | 
Three emperor penguins stand on  the sea ice off the coast of Dumont  d'Urville in Terre Adélie, Antarctica.  Photo credit: Ted Scambos, National  Snow and Ice Data Center | 
ANTARCTICA - More dire news from the South Pole: if global 
temperatures continue to rise, the 
emperor penguins in
 Terre Adélie, in East Antarctica
 may
 eventually disappear, according to a new study.
The study, led by researchers 
from the 
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), was 
published in the journal 
Global Change Biology.
“Over the last century, we have already observed the disappearance of
 the Dion Islets penguin colony, close to the West Antarctic Peninsula,”
 said Stephanie Jenouvrier, WHOI biologist and lead author of the study. 
“In 1948 and the 1970s, scientists recorded more than 150 
breeding pairs there. By 1999, the population was down to just 20 pairs,
 and in 2009, it had vanished entirely.”
Like in Terre Adélie, 
Jenouvrier thinks the decline of those penguins might be connected to a 
simultaneous decline in Antarctic sea ice due to warming temperatures in
 the region.
Unlike other sea birds, emperor penguins breed and raise their young 
almost exclusively on sea ice. If that ice breaks up and disappears 
early in the breeding season, massive breeding failure may occur, said 
Jenouvrier.
“As it is, there's a huge mortality rate just at the 
breeding stages, because only 50 percent of chicks survive to the end of
 the breeding season, and then only half of those fledglings survive 
until the next year,” she said.
Disappearing sea ice may also affect the penguins’ food source. The 
birds feed primarily on fish, squid, and krill, a shrimplike animal, 
which in turn feeds on zooplankton and phytoplankton, tiny organisms 
that grow on the underside of the ice. If the ice goes, Jenouvrier says,
 so too will the plankton, causing a ripple effect through the food web 
that may starve the various species that penguins rely on as prey.
To project how penguin populations may fare in the future, 
Jenouvrier’s team used data from several different sources, including 
climate models, sea ice forecasts, and a demographic model that 
Jenouvrier created of the emperor penguin population at Terre Adélie, a 
coastal region of Antarctica where French scientists have conducted 
penguin observations for more than 50 years.
Combining this type of long-term population data with information on 
climate was key to the study, said Hal Caswell, a WHOI senior 
mathematical biologist and collaborator on the paper.
“If you want to study the effects of climate on a particular species,
 there are three pieces that you have to put together,” he said.
“The 
first is a description of the entire life cycle of the organism, and how
 individuals move through that life cycle. The second piece is how the 
cycle is affected by climate variables. And the crucial third piece is a
 prediction of what those variables may look like in the future, which 
involves collaboration with climate scientists.”
Marika Holland of the 
National Center for Atmospheric Research is one
 such scientist. She specialises in studying the relationship between 
sea ice and global climate, and helped the team identify climate models 
for use in the study.
Working with Julienne Stroeve, another sea ice specialist from the 
National Snow and Ice Data Center, Holland ultimately recommended five 
distinct models.
“We picked the models based on how well they calculated
 the sea ice cover for the 20th century,” she said. “If a model 
predicted an outcome that matched what was actually observed, we felt it
 was likely that its projections of sea ice change in the future could 
be trusted.”
Jenouvrier used the output from these various climate models to 
determine how changes in temperature and sea ice might affect the emperor penguin population at Terre Adélie. She found that if greenhouse
 gas emissions continue to rise at levels similar to today - causing 
temperatures to rise and Antarctic sea ice to shrink - penguin population 
numbers will diminish slowly until about 2040, after which they would 
decline at a much steeper rate as sea ice coverage drops below a usable 
threshold.
“Our best projections show roughly 500 to 600 breeding pairs 
remaining by the year 2100. Today, the population size is around 3000 
breeding pairs,” said Jenouvrier.
The effect of rising temperature in the Antarctic isn’t just a 
penguin problem, according to Caswell. As sea ice coverage continues to 
shrink, the resulting changes in the Antarctic marine environment will 
affect other species, and may affect humans as well.
“We rely on the functioning of those ecosystems. We 
eat fish that come from the Antarctic. We rely on nutrient cycles that 
involve species in the oceans all over the world,” he said.
“Understanding the effects of climate change on predators at the top of 
marine food chains - like Emperor penguins - is in our best interest, 
because it helps us understand ecosystems that provide important 
services to us."
Also collaborating on the study were Christophe Barbraud and Henri 
Weimerskirch of the 
Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, in France, and
 Mark Serreze of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in the United 
States.
Global Change Biology citation
Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: analysis of coupled demographic and climate models, Stephanie Jenouvrier, Marika Holland,     Julienne Stroeve, Christophe Barbraud, Henri Weimerskirch, Mark Serreze, Hal Caswell,  Global Change Biology, 20 June 2012.
Sources
Melting sea ice threatens emperor penguins, study finds, 20 June 2012, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute
Study: Global climate trend threaten Antarctic penguins, 20 June 2012, National Snow and Ice Data Center